Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-04-13

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-04-03) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 100 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-04-03 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmed cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-03. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-03. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-03. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-03. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-03)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-03) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country/Region New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Algeria 102 (51 – 153) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -22 (15 – Inf)
Argentina 116 (71 – 160) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 130 (10 – Inf)
Australia 102 (48 – 153) Decreasing 0.7 (0.5 – 0.8) -11 (47 – Inf)
Austria 295 (220 – 359) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -56 (27 – Inf)
Azerbaijan 96 (46 – 142) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.6) 17 (5.8 – Inf)
Bahrain 79 (33 – 120) Increasing 1.5 (1 – 2) 8.7 (4 – Inf)
Bangladesh 96 (43 – 137) Increasing 1.9 (1.2 – 2.4) 5.1 (3.1 – 14)
Belarus 349 (273 – 422) Increasing 1.6 (1.3 – 1.9) 7.1 (5.1 – 12)
Belgium 1477 (1350 – 1637) Increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 84 (28 – Inf)
Brazil 1680 (1515 – 1818) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 19 (13 – 35)
Cameroon 49 (15 – 81) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.2) -9.3 (17 – Inf)
Canada 1341 (1209 – 1493) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) -250 (49 – Inf)
Chile 452 (369 – 524) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 28 (12 – Inf)
China 90 (52 – 139) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 22 (6.4 – Inf)
Colombia 232 (164 – 288) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.6) 11 (6.6 – 45)
Czechia 218 (153 – 276) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -47 (23 – Inf)
Denmark 238 (166 – 295) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -21 (83 – Inf)
Dominican Republic 211 (141 – 278) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.6) 13 (6.5 – Inf)
Ecuador 914 (707 – 1219) Increasing 1.7 (1.4 – 2) 5.7 (4.3 – 8.1)
Egypt 160 (99 – 212) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.6) 15 (6.7 – Inf)
Estonia 52 (19 – 87) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) -25 (8.6 – Inf)
Finland 156 (97 – 208) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 92 (11 – Inf)
France 3875 (3630 – 4097) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) 160 (47 – Inf)
Germany 4150 (3933 – 4394) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 0.9) -31 (Inf – Inf)
Greece 75 (34 – 116) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -840 (8.1 – Inf)
Hungary 141 (78 – 191) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 1.9) 7.7 (4.4 – 30)
India 831 (711 – 936) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 15 (10 – 31)
Indonesia 283 (221 – 346) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 14 (7.9 – 75)
Iran 1865 (1699 – 2026) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -18 (Inf – Inf)
Iraq 75 (33 – 117) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) 60 (6.7 – Inf)
Ireland 801 (693 – 907) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.5) 10 (7.3 – 15)
Israel 393 (311 – 461) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -13 (Inf – Inf)
Italy 4160 (3892 – 4402) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -190 (90 – Inf)
Japan 748 (642 – 856) Increasing 1.5 (1.3 – 1.7) 7.6 (5.8 – 11)
Kazakhstan 58 (18 – 92) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) -170 (6.9 – Inf)
Kuwait 110 (64 – 152) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.6) 17 (6.3 – Inf)
Lithuania 56 (23 – 93) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.6) 70 (5.9 – Inf)
Luxembourg 97 (45 – 140) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -45 (11 – Inf)
Malaysia 150 (98 – 194) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -35 (21 – Inf)
Mexico 361 (292 – 431) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 16 (8.8 – 78)
Moldova 137 (80 – 185) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 29 (8.2 – Inf)
Morocco 101 (58 – 148) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 130 (9.2 – Inf)
Netherlands 1218 (1081 – 1336) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 36 (18 – 970)
Norway 125 (68 – 182) Decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -11 (580 – Inf)
Pakistan 242 (183 – 305) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -23 (40 – Inf)
Panama 242 (182 – 304) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 17 (8.2 – Inf)
Peru 898 (796 – 1028) Increasing 1.5 (1.3 – 1.7) 7.7 (6 – 10)
Philippines 174 (114 – 218) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -23 (42 – Inf)
Poland 386 (302 – 461) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 130 (18 – Inf)
Portugal 898 (782 – 1013) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 29 (15 – 740)
Qatar 179 (121 – 227) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) -54 (19 – Inf)
Romania 400 (329 – 470) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 32 (13 – Inf)
Russia 1551 (1402 – 1700) Increasing 1.4 (1.3 – 1.5) 9.9 (8 – 13)
Saudi Arabia 328 (259 – 397) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 11 (7 – 28)
Serbia 240 (179 – 296) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 130 (15 – Inf)
Singapore 209 (149 – 261) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.7) 8.4 (5.3 – 21)
Slovakia 60 (10 – 111) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.7 – 2) 13 (3.6 – Inf)
South Africa 92 (38 – 145) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.7) 19 (5.5 – Inf)
South Korea 42 (12 – 66) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1) -8.7 (24 – Inf)
Spain 5221 (4947 – 5485) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 0.9) -27 (Inf – Inf)
Sweden 588 (501 – 679) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 30 (14 – Inf)
Switzerland 671 (571 – 763) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -24 (Inf – Inf)
Thailand 66 (26 – 104) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1.1) -12 (19 – Inf)
Turkey 4555 (4291 – 4784) Increasing 1.2 (1.2 – 1.3) 17 (14 – 22)
Ukraine 268 (203 – 332) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.6) 9.6 (6 – 25)
United Arab Emirates 352 (287 – 427) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 24 (11 – Inf)
United Kingdom 5984 (5649 – 6253) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 22 (17 – 31)
United States of America 32490 (31819 – 33131) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 95 (65 – 180)
Uzbekistan 87 (43 – 119) Likely increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.7) 12 (5.2 – Inf)

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